Thursday, June 9, 2011

Market Timing Update (6/9/11)

[EOD] count update-
Current count (Chart 1), see squiggle count (Chart 2) for basis, also see 1120am entry for additional info.

[1223pm] ES squiggles-
If this is a ABC-rebound, here's a potential count on ES

[1120am] Count update (SPX)-
Squiggles appear to favor the corrective count here - the decline from the June high appears to be a 3-3-3-3-EDT wedge based on the blue count, completing a potential flat.

So if the low for this leg is in, the most bearish count is a leading diagonal (i)-down - but what are the chances of back-to-back LDs in a impulse decline?

The bullish count is that a major low is in.

Expect a deep retrace either way.

The immediately bearish alternative is that a small-degree fourth wave (expanded flat?) rebound is in progress - see the main red count.

[750am] Overnight update (stocks) -
ES has retraced 76.4% of the prior advance. YM has more obvious squiggles for the latest leg of decline.