Thursday, February 10, 2011

Market Timing Update (2/10/11)

[630pm] Futures -
Bullish count

Four tracking options at the moment, with subjective assessment of the associated probabilities.
[most likely, blue] wave (iv) is still in progress, likely sideways as discussed yesterday. There's little room for today's low to be violated in SPX, but more room in INDU. The pink count is fairly unlikely as it does not fit with the wave structure of INDU.
[likely, certainly fitting, but too early to call] wave (v) has started at today's low, but is tracing out and ED - therefore, the appearance of a three in today's rebound. The other possibility is that the volatility around the Egypt news is a complex wave ii of (v).
[less likely, red] The top of this wave is in.

[2pm] INDU Squiggles -

[1210pm] Mid-day update (SPX) -

[1010am] Count update (SPX, INDU) -
make or break time for the green count

[730am] Overnight update (stocks and USD) -