Sunday, January 2, 2011

Market Timing Update (1/3/11)

[NDX] NDX delivered a new intraday high beyond the 2007 peak. It is only appropriate to update its long term primary count.

[EOD] Using the ES(March), the primary count is that there is a small-degree fifth wave left to complete [iii] of minor wave 5 (or less likely, [v] of minor wave 5) assuming no extension. The bearish alternative count is that the top of either [iii] or [v] is in (red count in Chart 2). The green support line offers an initial confirmation of a top, assuming no extension.

These options would correspond to a meaningful pullback scenario highlighted in Hope Rally Update 2 (12/31/10).

The bullish alternative count is that the current high is only iii of (iii) (or even [1] of iii of (iii)) - in other words, a third wave at certain degree is extending. This scenario would correspond to the (very) shallow pullback scenario outlined in the weekend commentary.

[1150am] Count update (ES) -
[Sunday 1010pm] ES and DX update -
Stock futures and the dollar index are both up