Thursday, October 28, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/28/10 Close)

[1040pm] Futures update (NQ, ES, AudJpy) -
[7pm] This is a table presented when the market was approaching the August high. It's time to track these indices again.

[4pm stocks] Please see earlier entries regarding the wave structure in NDX - the index with the most motive structure. The first chart below offers two squiggle counts from the Oct 19 low, one nearly immediately bearish and the other more bullish.

Regarding SPX, the three tracking counts are still tracking. The second chart updates.
[250pm] NDX squiggles -
One possible count, see the 2nd chart below.
[1105am] Count update (NQ/NDX) -
See the [810am] entry for details.

[810am] Overnight stocks (NQ) - What if ...
Higher high in the NDX Dec futures overnight - the index with the most motive structure. What if NDX is already in [v] of 5 since the July low based on the following count? If (v) of [v]of 5 as shown in these charts OR [v] of 5 in general does not extend, the top could be in today, this week, or the next week at the most.

The bullish alternative is a relentless extension where the proposed label 5 is [iii] of 3. While technicals on the daily may be ok with this interpretation, technicals on the 60min chart appears to be weak for a [iii] of 3.