Thursday, May 20, 2010

Market Timing Update (5/20/10 Close)

Update on Stocks and Gold

Stocks - There is no need at the moment to change the primary count status of the P3-type of bearish count as it is doing nicely. Note that at today's low, the RUT is only 2.35 index points away from its flash-crash low.

It makes sense to keep the bullish alternative count on the table based on two observations, although the likelihood of the alt count playing out seems to be more and more remote.
[1] The decline since the pre-market high on 5/10/10 can be counted as a flat-x-zigzag corrective structure in SPX, until the flash-crash low is taken out.
[2] Today's decline, which contains iii of (iii) of [i] of 3, as indicated in chart 1, is not too much larger than iii of (i).

Thus, if the bearish count is playing out, iii of (iii) may be extending, with the sell-off into the close as the start of [3] of iii of (iii), as indicated in chart 1.

Gold - The decline in Gold while deeper than expected, may be corrective. If so, it would be a fourth wave of some degree. See chart.

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