Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Market Timing Update (5/11/10 Close)


It's nice to have a day when a single chart tells the near term story. Here we go -
Bottom Line -
[1] Currently there is downward pressure on the market going into the close and negative divergence between price and momentum has developed.
[2] Warning: Dropping below today's low alone does not confirm (or even solidify) the bearish or the bullish case. See chart.

[Red-P3, Primary] One more higher high as (c) of [y] left to conclude the wave-2 rebound.

[Green-P3, Alt] If the mini-crash low is the end of 1-down, today's top likely marked the end of wave 2-rebound.

[Blue-P2, final 7 waves up to new highs] I've been discussing this P2 alt since the day of the mini crash. Please refer to prior updates for more information.

With this count, today's high is the end of the 3rd of the final 7 waves up to new highs. In EW terms, today's high is [w] of Y(Y)[2].

The decline into the close is the start of an [x] wave, which can drop below today's low. Another 3 wave advance will follow once wave [x] is done.
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